💰 Advanced Bankroll Management
Your bankroll is your betting business capital. Professional bettors treat it with the same care a business treats its cash reserves. This guide covers advanced strategies for optimal growth and risk control.
Core Principles
- Separate betting funds - Never mix with living expenses
- Define your unit - One unit = 1-2% of bankroll
- Never chase losses - Stick to your staking plan
- Adjust for performance - Recalculate units monthly
- Plan for variance - Even +EV bettors have losing months
Staking Plans
📊 Flat Staking
How it works: Bet the same amount (1-2 units) on every wager regardless of confidence.
Pros: Simple, controls variance, easy to track
Cons: Doesn't maximize value opportunities
Best for: Beginners, those building a track record
📈 Kelly Criterion
How it works: Bet a percentage of your bankroll proportional to your edge.
f* = (bp - q) / b
Where:
- f* = fraction of bankroll to bet
- b = decimal odds - 1
- p = probability of winning
- q = probability of losing (1 - p)
Odds: 2.50 (b = 1.5)
Your estimated win probability: 45% (p = 0.45, q = 0.55)
Kelly = (1.5 × 0.45 - 0.55) / 1.5 = 0.083 = 8.3% of bankroll
Important: Most professionals use "fractional Kelly" (quarter or half Kelly) to reduce variance.
🎯 Confidence-Based Staking
How it works: Rate each bet 1-5 stars and stake accordingly.
| Confidence | Stake |
|---|---|
| ⭐ (1 star) | 0.5 units |
| ⭐⭐ (2 stars) | 1 unit |
| ⭐⭐⭐ (3 stars) | 2 units |
| ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4 stars) | 3 units |
| ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (5 stars) | 4-5 units (rare) |
Warning: Requires honest self-assessment. Most bettors overrate their confidence.
📉 Percentage of Bankroll
How it works: Always bet X% of current bankroll.
If you have $10,000 and bet 2%, you bet $200.
If you win and have $10,500, next bet is $210.
If you lose and have $9,800, next bet is $196.
Pros: Automatically adjusts stakes, can never go bust
Cons: Recovery from losses is slower
Understanding Variance
Even profitable bettors experience significant variance:
Expected Results at 55% Win Rate (Even Money Bets)
| Sample Size | Best Case | Expected | Worst Case |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 bets | +30 units | +10 units | -10 units |
| 500 bets | +75 units | +50 units | +25 units |
| 1,000 bets | +130 units | +100 units | +70 units |
Variance decreases with more bets. Short-term results are unreliable.
Surviving Losing Streaks
A 55% bettor can expect:
- 5+ game losing streak: Very common (expect several per year)
- 10+ game losing streak: Possible (once or twice per year)
- 15+ game losing streak: Rare but happens
Key: Your bankroll must survive the worst-case scenario.
Practical Guidelines
| Bankroll Size | Recommended Max Bet | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| $1,000 | $10-20 (1-2%) | Building phase, flat stake |
| $5,000 | $50-100 (1-2%) | Can use confidence staking |
| $25,000 | $250-500 (1-2%) | Consider Kelly (fractional) |
| $100,000+ | $1,000-2,000 (1-2%) | Professional level, diversify |
Calculate Your Stakes
Use our professional betting calculators to:
- Calculate Kelly stakes
- Convert odds formats
- Plan accumulator returns
- Analyze ROI and yield